How to Judge a Tipster?
It’s very easy to be sucked in by the way some Tipster Services promote themselves. There can be claims of profit running into tens of £’000s and how their service will change your life etc. I’m sure they’ve had loads of people subscribe only to find out all is not as claimed. There are tips here to help to judge a tipster.
So how can you find the relatively few genuinely profitable needles in the haystack of Tipster Services. I’ve set out my thoughts here. Whilst there’s no perfect process I hope this will help you in some way. See how you can better judge what’s being sold when you get that sales email.
By the way, I can’t make any promises but if you do find a service you think passes first inspection but want a sounding board feel free to get in touch via Contact Us or email and if I can I’ll have a look and share my thoughts
My Key Things To Consider
What Events do they tip?
Say bets are Win bets in horse racing races or on football match results in major football leagues. There will be no shortage of prices available via bookies or on the betting exchanges. You stand a decent chance of getting your bets on and at similar prices to those advised by the tipster.
Alternatively, the tips are on the number of corners in a football match in the Hungarian Ladies league. Even if you can get your bet on, the bookie may mark your account as a ‘non-mainstream’ bettor. If you’re making profits from these less mainstream bets you stand a good chance of having your stakes limited by said bookie…
Sports they Tip
Are you interested in the sports? Do you care? Do you have time and will you want to watch the bets?
When & how will they provide Tips?
There’s no right answer but this MUST work for you. Most of us you have a day job that gets in the way of your betting activity. You’ll likely only have limited time/windows during the day to check your email. You may struggle to pick up tips that are given out shortly before events start.
The profitability of some horse racing tipsters is based on obtaining VALUE prices. Typically by identifying horses which are priced up by bookies the night before a race at higher than the tipster’s expected odds. These odds may only be available for a matter of minutes before the bookies start slashing the price. The odds won’t last long once they start taking a higher than expected number of bets on the horse.
For you to profit you need to achieve the same or similar odds as the tipster gives out. You’ll need to be able to receive the tips and react quickly. There’s no point signing up if your evenings are busy and you don’t get any time to yourself until bedtime! Note, if you’re seen to regularly take these early prices and appear to be getting VALUE then chances are you’ll be GUBBED before too long.
Alternatively, a tipster might provide lots of tips spread out throughout the day. Are you likely to pick them up and get your bets on easily without the process taking over your day?
Sending tips by email is standard. Some use messaging services like Whatsapp or Telegram. Occasionally tipsters might expect you to log on to their website to get the tips. Before committing to a tipster, don’t forget their service has to work for you and your routine. The act of putting a bet on feeling like a chore that you come to resent
Free or Paid Service?
There’s nothing wrong with Free services provided they still pass other criteria. Some good tipsters are happy to offer quality tips for free without the hassle of running a paid service. Equally, they might be free now and trying to build a following before switching to a paid service
Price per Month / Cost per Point?
2 things here:
- 1) they better be good if asking for more than c.£30 per month
- 2) what stake are you planning to use? How many points profit per month will you need to make just to cover your subscription?
I call this the Cost Per Point (CPP) rating. Say the tipster results show an average level stakes points return of 12 points per month. They charge £24 per month so the CPP is £2 (£24÷12 pts). Maybe you only plan on placing stakes of £2 per bet. If so, you’ll only cover your monthly costs even if the tipster continues achieving their average points return.
Trial Period / Money Back Guarantee available?
If a free or low-cost trial is available you can see whether the service works for you. One week of results won’t allow you to check long-term results but you will be able to check if the timing of tips works for you (See ‘When and how will they provide Tips’). Are the advised prices still available when you check on your bookie’s site? Do the advised tips rely on prices from a single bookie and the available prices at all other bookies are typically lower?
Profits to Level Stakes (LSP) / Monthly & Annual.
The Level Stakes Profit is key for me. Many many tipsters show results based on historic bets of 5 or 10 points so they might have months when the profits were 200, 300, 400 points or more. If bets were for 10 points then at LSP the return would have been 20, 30, 40+ points. Now don’t get me wrong, that is a great profit but I will always convert the quoted results back into LSP to get a proper understanding of returns. Be suspicious of sites showing screenshots of historic wins and no losses but claiming an overall level of profits. If I can’t check the full list of claimed results then it’s a ‘NO’ from me to prevent me wasting any time.
Transparency – have their results been Proofed to a Reputable Site/Platform?
Just because the tipster shows you a list of results it doesn’t mean they are true. Anyone can obtain historic sports results/horse starting prices and create a list of ‘previously advised tips’. Ideally the tipster will have proofed their selection on a reputable tipster platform for at least 3 months
Backing or Laying Service?
The vast majority of tipsters provide Back tips. Some focus on Laying results which will need the lay bets to be placed on betting exchanges. For Lay services you need to understand what the Level Stake Returns are to properly evaluate them (Click HERE for more info)
Longevity
How long has the service been running? Less than 6 months and I’d be wary, particularly with horse racing tipsters. Consider putting them on a Watchlist and then track results. Horse tipsters can have very unpredictable months as the flat & jumps seasons transition (April/October) so ideally you would have a year’s worth of results to review
Does the Website/Sales Material show pictures of expensive cars & holiday destinations?
Nuff said…. Reputable tipsters will focus on their service and their selection method etc. Less reputable ones might try enticing potential customers with all the riches they’ll have if they sign up! A sales page plastered with pictures of exotic holiday destinations is a red flag when you’re evaluating a tipster.
Do they explain the Process used to make Selections?
You may or may not care how a tipster makes their selections. However, a tipster explaining their approach does suggest they are legit and not using a pin to make selections, particularly if they ‘write up’ each selection when issued
Number of Daily / Monthly Selections
Check previous results to ensure you know how many selections a tipster normally advises. Some might provide 2 or 3 tips a week, others might tip 10 a day. What will work for you? If you have a Portfolio, you don’t want to spend all your time backing and tracking your bets! A tipster with a high number of tips per day will mean that when they go through the inevitable losing runs, your betting bank will take quite a hit. Can you cope with that even if the long-term return is worth it?
Strike Rate
This is the ratio of winning tips. If a tipster has 6 winners from 10 tips then they’ll have a 60% Strike Rate.
There will be losing runs!
You might prefer to join a service tipping at lower odds. They should have a higher strike rate (like the example 60%). Who doesn’t want to back lots of winners? A profitable tipster with a lower Strike Rate will be advising tips at higher odds. You’ll then get some big winners if you’re prepared to wait. BUT the results depend on a handful of big winners. How likely are they to occur again and what if you miss placing a bet on the days they win?
Following a tipster with a low strike rate but higher prices can be bloody hard! If you’re on a run of 20 losing tips and counting your losses, deciding whether to keep going and for how long can be stressful. You should have been prepared for exactly that scenario when you signed up to the tipster. You should have allowed for a bank that can cope with the expected roller coaster ride…
Average Odds
If a tipster’s selections are typically at high odds that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, you MUST be confident that you will be able to place your bets at similar odds. Higher odds will also mean a lower Strike Rate
Yield
A very important measure to consider. Yield is the amount of profit divided by the amount invested. Using level stakes, 120 bets are placed at 1 point stakes and the profit is 12 points then the Yield is 10%. Any tipster with a Yield above c.15% is either very good or likely to see a correction soon
Betting Bank Required
This links to the No. of Daily Selections, Strike Rate and Average Odds. Many profitable services tip at quite high odds (say 16/1+) so they will naturally have long losing runs. You’ll need a larger betting bank to cope with those losing runs.
You need to decide what risk factor to apply to your betting bank. How much of your bank do you want to risk per point that you bet? Say you have £500 and want to risk no more than £5 on each bet (assume level stake 1pt bets). So your betting bank is effectively 100 points (£500÷£5).
If a tipster gives 5 selections a day, worst case you’ll lose 5% of your bank on a bad day. A week of losers and your bank will be down to 65 points. I take a conservative approach and would never have a bank of less than 100 points. That would only be for a service with a high strike rate. For services with more variability (lower Strike Rate) you might start with a bank of up to 500 points. There’s nothing worse than starting with a bank that’s too small. You have a losing run and maybe take a breather/give up just before the tipster gets their next long-odds winner!
Early Prices Required for Profit?
This links to price availability. Can you match the prices they base their results on? Are the tips sent out the night before racing and take advantage of early prices? There’s nothing wrong with this as winning is all about getting value. If prices shorten significantly pre-race you need to be confident you can get the early prices as well. Also, bear in mind that bookies may limit accounts solely betting on early horse racing prices
Profitable to Betfair Starting Price (BSP)
If tipster results show profits to Betfair Starting Prices (BSP) you can be confident you can mirror their results. BUT check that they quote BSP results net of commission. I have a number of my accounts where bookies restrict the amount I can bet and/or I’m not eligible for Best Odds Guaranteed. A profit at BSP is a key factor for me.
How Consistent are the Tipster’s Results?
When you choose a tipster you want to make sure the results are consistent. Check out this blog post looking at 2 different tipsters results.
Is the tipster consistently profitable or there’s a mix of good & bad months but overall profit? Maybe they may show profit over a year. But that profit might have been made in the first 6 months and they’ve lost every month since. Look at any graphs showing performance – is there a steady profit progression or a roller coaster?
A tipster with a low strike rate as they tip at higher odds will very likely have less consistent results. You need to be sure you can handle the ups & downs.
A service has 80 points profit over 12 months but they’ve had 2 big wins accounting for 100 points. Unless they repeat the same 2 big wins over the next 12 months you might expect to lose 20 points???
Does it Fit with your Portfolio?
Every tipster is different but they all hit winning or losing runs. Taking a Portfolio approach can help even out the inevitable peaks and troughs. Also, you might want to spread your interest across sports. For example, I like to place a mix of football and horse racing bets.
How To Judge A Tipster – Summary
It might seem there’s way too much to consider but none of this is Rocket Science! There any many way to consider how to judge a tipster. It’s your decision which is any of the above you take into account . These are just some ways to rate a tipster.. However, if you are going to commit your hard-earned for someone else to send you tips then you MUST do so on as INFORMED a basis as possible.
I have a list of the Tipsters that have passed my analysis in the Recommended Tipsters page so feel free to use that as a guide. It should be updated monthly so please feel free to check back regularly or sign up to the PFS Newsletter for notifications when new tipsters are reviewed or there are other updates to the Site.
You can download my Tipster Checklist below if you want to keep it for reference
