Reviewing Lay Tipster Results

There are many Tipsters who base their selections on Lay Bets rather than the more typical Back Bets. Results can sound great but I think they can be a little misleading. Hence this post looking at reviewing lay tipster results.

In theory, having a service in your Portfolio which advises Lay Bets makes a lot of sense.  Depending on what markets they are laying in you might have up to 20 horses on your side and running for you against the horse you’ve laid.  Another advantage is that you’ll be placing your bets on a Betting Exchange . There’s no chance of your account being limited (Gubbed). You should also be able to achieve similar prices to those quoted by the tipster.

All sounds great doesn’t it but surely there’s a downside?  For me, when deciding whether to follow a lay tipster the key points to check on top of all the normal ones are:-

• How are the lay tipster results presented and what do they mean in simple Level Stakes Profit terms?
• Has commission been taken into account?

Simple Lay Bet Results Example

An easy example is a Tipster who advises Lay Bets on runners in horse races at high odds. Let’s assume they tip Lays on Betfair at average odds of 101.0. For each successful Lay Bet they claim a return of +1 point. They give 90 Lay tips which all lose. The returns are quoted as +90 points (excluding commission). The next horse they tip wins the race (a loss of 100 points) and the profit is now -10 points (excluding commission).

If you were betting with a £2 lay stake, you will have had a £200 liability for each bet. After the 91 bets above you will have a net loss of £20. That means you are really 0.1 points down based on your ‘stake’ of £200 per bet. Equally, your next successful lay bet will give a profit of £2 or 0.01 points.

Actual Lay Tipster Results Example

We’ll take a look at the results for a real lay tipster who has been advising horse racing lay tips since August 2020.  They have a full results spreadsheet and deduct 2% commission from any profitable bets.  All bets are shown and the results are based on a fixed lay stake. All Winning bets give a net 0.98 point profit (after commission). There will be varying losses based on the price the bet was laid at.  If the lay bet was £10 laid at 3.3 then if the horse lost the race (a winning bet) the return is +£9.80. If it wins the race then there’s a loss of £23.

Tipster Claimed Results

The summary results for 7 months of tips are:-

Number of bets        1,104

Net return                 159 points

So you might think that represents a very healthy return and go ahead and sign up to the service.  Hang on a minute though….

Look at the example above of laying at 3.3 to win 1pt (a liability of 2.3pts).  We’ll see what happens if you reverse the bet and it’s a back bet. You then back at 3.3 with a 1pt stake – your liability is 1pt and potential winnings are 2.3 pts (before commission).  You are effectively backing at odds-on.  So we’re really comparing a stake of 2.3pts for the lay bet with a 1pt back bet stake. 

My take on this is to calculate level stakes return for Lay Tipster bets based on a liability of 1 point – in this example then, the lay ‘stake’ would be 0.43 points.  If the horse loses you win 0.42 points after commission and if the horse wins the race you lose 1 point

1 Point Liability Results

Let’s have another look at the full results for the tipster based on a 1pt liability for each Lay Bet.  The results on that basis are as follows:-

Number of bets        1,104

Total staked              1,104 points

Net return                 29.3 pts

Yield                          2.65%

I’ve added the Total Staked and Yield to these results and you can see the profit is 29 points so around 4 pts per month over the 7 months worth of results.  Positive yes but not setting the world alight. Particularly when you take into account any subscription costs.   At 2.65% the yield is again positive  To give a better comparison I’ve added them to the table below showing both methods of tracking results.

	Variable Liability (Liability = (Lay Price -1) pts	Fixed Liability (Liability = 1 point
Number of bets	1,104	1,104
Total staked	4,226	1,104
Net return	159 pts	29.3 pts
Yield	3.77%	2.65%

The Yield is similar for both methods. The higher return recorded by the Lay Tipster reflects a higher stake for each bet.

CONCLUSION

I like to know what returns a service makes on a strict level stakes basis regardless of whether they advise Back or Lay tips. I will always want to evaluate a lay betting tipster based on the Fixed Liability basis.    The principle is similar to when reviewing a back betting tipster and they quote returns based on say 10 points per bet- I’d start by dividing their points return by 10. 

At first glance the profits reported by the lay service here are quite respectable. There is nothing wrong with the way they’re recorded.  However, it shows that when each winning lay is recorded as a gross profit of 1 point the associated liability can’t be compared to the standard 1 point loss if a Back bet loses.

There’s nothing wrong with following Lay Bet Tipsters. However, I will always want to make sure I properly understand their historic results.