It’s very easy to be sucked in by the way some Tipster Services promote themselves. Some claim profit running into tens of £’000s, how their service will change your life etc. I’m sure they’ve had loads of people subscribe only to find out all is not as claimed. The purpose of this page is to set out How I Evaluate a Tipster service to help you do the same and confidently select a tipster.
So how can you avoid bad tipsters and find the relatively few needles in the haystack of Tipster Services? I’ve set out my thoughts here and whilst there’s no perfect process I hope this will help you. Hopefully you’ll be able to see through the claims in the next email you receive with a fantastic offer:-
You can make £’000s if you sign up in the next 24 hours. Offer strictly limited to 50 people……
By the way, feel free to Contact Us if you have a service you’d like us to take a look at. If you are struggling to decide whether to select a tipster and need some help, let us know.
How I Check Out a Tipster – Key Things to Consider
What Events do They Tip?
Win bets in horse racing races or on football match results in major football leagues are mainstream. There will be no shortage of prices available via bookies or on the betting exchanges. So you stand a decent chance of getting your bets on and at similar prices to those advised by the tipster.
If the tips are on the number of corners in a football match in the Hungarian Ladies league then things may be different. Even if you can get your bet on then the bookie may mark your account as a ‘non-mainstream’ bettor. When you start making profits from more obscure bets you stand a good chance of your bet stakes limited by said bookie…
What Sports Do They Tip
Are you interested in the sports? Do you care? Do you have time and will you want to watch the bets? The results would have to be top notch for me to select a tipster in a sports I don’t follow.
Free or Paid Service?
There’s nothing wrong with Free services provided they still pass other criteria. Some good tipsters are happy to offer quality tips for free without the hassle of running a paid service. Equally, they might be free now and trying to build a following before switching to a paid service
Price per Month / Cost per Point?
2 things here: 1) they better be good if asking for more than c.£30 per month 2) what stake are you planning to use so how many points per month will you need to make just to cover your subscription?
I call this the Cost Per Point (CPP) rating – say the tipster results show an average level stakes points return of 12 points per month. They charge £24 per month so the CPP is £2 (£24÷12 pts). Say you plan stakes of £2 per bet? Then you’ll only cover your monthly costs if the tipster continues to achieve their average points return.
Trial Period / Money Back Guarantee available?
If a free or low-cost trial is available you can see whether the service works for you. One week of results won’t allow you to check long-term results. However, you will be able to check if the timing of tips works for you. Are the advised prices still available when you check on your bookie’s site? Do the advised tips quote prices from one bookie and the available prices at other bookies are typically lower?
Profits to Level Stakes (LSP) / Monthly & Annual
The Level Stakes Profit is key for me. Many many tipsters show results based on historic bets of 5 or 10 points. They might have months when the profits are 200, 300, 400 points or more. If bets were for 10 points then at LSP the return would have been 20, 30, 40+ points.
Now don’t get me wrong, that is a great profit. However, I will always convert the quoted results back into LSP to get a proper understanding of returns.
Be suspicious of sites showing screenshots of historic wins and no losses but claiming an overall level of profits. If I can’t check all the claimed results it’s a ‘NO’ from me to prevent me wasting any time.
Backing or Laying Service?
The vast majority of tipsters provide Back tips. Some focus on Laying results which will need the lay bets to be placed on betting exchanges. For Lay services you need to understand what the Level Stake Returns are to properly evaluate them.
Transparency – have their results been Proofed to a Reputable Site/Platform? Are they Legit?
Just because the tipster shows you a list of results it doesn’t mean they are true. Anyone can obtain historic results and create a list of advised tips. Ideally the tipster will have proofed their selection on a platform for at least 3 months
Website / Tipster Platform / Social Media
Is the service on one of the more reputable Tipster Platforms like Tipstrr or Betting Gods? If they are, there will be a full set of historic results.
Maybe the tipster has their own website. I’ve seen plenty of services which claim to have trusted and proofed past results. There’s no evidence of their proofing so I then check out their website. I use a site like Whois to see how long the site has existed and there’s a red flag if it’s only just been registered.
I’ve posted separately some thoughts regarding Social Media tipsters. There are some genuine ones but they are way outnumbered by less desirable services!
Longevity
How long has the service been running? Less than 6 months and I’d be wary, particularly with horse racing tipsters. Consider putting them on a Watchlist and then track results. There can be very unpredictable months as the flat & jumps seasons transition. Ideally you would have a year’s worth of results to review. You want to select a tipster that isn’t going to be a flash in the pan.
Does the Website/Sales Material show pictures of expensive cars & holiday destinations? Nuff said…. Reputable tipsters will focus on their service, their selection method etc. Less reputable tipsters may entice potential customers with all the riches they’ll have if they sign up!
Do they explain the Process used to make Selections?
You may or may not care how a tipster makes their selections. However, a tipster that does explain their approach does suggest they are legit and not using a pin to make selections. Some tipsters take great pride in ‘writing up’ each selection when issued
Number of Daily / Monthly Selections
Check previous results to ensure you know how many selections a tipster normally advises. Some might provide 2 or 3 tips a week, others might tip 10 a day. What will work for you? If you have a Portfolio, you don’t want to spend all your time backing and tracking your bets! Some tipster services are based on a high number of tips per day. So when they go through the inevitable losing runs, your betting bank will take quite a hit. Can you cope with that even if the long-term return is worth it?
Strike Rate
This is the ratio of winning tips. If a tipster has 6 winners from 10 tips then they’ll have a 60% Strike Rate. There will be losing runs! You might prefer to join a service that tips at lower odds so they have a higher strike rate (like the example 60%). Who doesn’t want to back lots of winners?
A profitable tipster with a lower Strike Rate will be advising tips at higher odds. You will then get some big winners if you’re prepared to wait. BUT if the results depend on a handful of big winners how likely are they to occur again? What if you miss placing a bet on the days they come in?
Average Odds
If a tipster’s selections are typically at high odds that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. However, you MUST be confident that you will be able to place your bets at similar odds. Higher odds will also mean a lower Strike Rate
Yield
A very important measure to consider. Yield is the amount of profit divided by the amount invested. If using level stakes, say 120 bets are placed at 1 point stakes and the profit is 12 points – the Yield is 10%. Any tipster with a Yield above 15% is either very good or likely to see a correction soon
Betting Bank Required
This links to the No. of Daily Selections, Strike Rate and Average Odds. Many profitable services tip at quite high odds (say 16/1+) and will naturally have long losing runs. You’ll need a larger betting bank to cope with those losing runs.
You need to decide what risk factor to apply to your betting bank. How much of your bank do you want to risk per point that you bet? Say you have £500 and want to risk no more than £5 on each bet (assume level stake 1pt bets). Your betting bank is effectively 100 points (£500÷£5). If the tipster averages 5 selections a day, worst case you’ll lose 5% of your bank on a bad day. A week of losers and your bank will be down to 65 points.
I take a conservative approach and would never have a bank of less than 100 points. Even then, that would only be for a service with a high strike rate.
For services with more variability (lower Strike Rate) you might want to start with a bank of up to 500 points. Imagine starting with a relatively small bank. You have a losing run and take a breather/giving up on the tipster just before they get their next long-odds winner!
Early Prices Required for Profit?
This links to price availability. Are the tips sent out the night before racing and take advantage of early prices? There’s nothing wrong with this as winning is all about getting value. However, if the prices shorten significantly by the race start you need to be confident you can get the early prices as well. Also, bear in mind that bookies may limit accounts solely betting on early horse racing prices
Profitable to Betfair Starting Price (BSP)
Some tipster results show that they are profitable to Betfair Starting Prices (BSP). If so, you can be confident you can mirror their results 😊 BUT check that they quote BSP results net of commission. I have a number of my accounts where the bookies have restricted my stakes and/or I’m not eligible for Best Odds Guaranteed. A profit at BSP is a key factor for me when deciding to select a tipster.
How Consistent are the Tipster’s Results?
Is the tipster consistently profitable or there’s a mix of good & bad months but overall profit? They may show profit over a year but that profit might have been made in the first 6 months. They’ve then lost every month since. Look at any graphs showing performance – is there a steady profit progression or a roller coaster?
A tipster with a low strike rate tipping at higher odds will very likely have less consistent results. You need to be sure you can handle the ups & downs. Have a look at this Blog Post for a comparison of 2 profitable tipsters with similar overall results. Would you have stuck with them to get those results?
Don’t select a tipster if they’re in profit only because of one big odds win.
Does it Fit with your Portfolio?
Every tipster is different but they all hit winning or losing runs. Taking a Portfolio approach can help even out the inevitable peaks and troughs. Also, you might want to spread your interest across sports. For example, I like to place a mix of football and horse racing bets.
Summary
It might seem there’s way too much to consider but none of this is Rocket Science! If you are going to commit your hard-earned to someone else to give you tips then you MUST do so on as INFORMED a basis as possible. When you select a tipster you must do it with your eyes open…
I have a list of the Tipsters that have passed my analysis in the Recommended Tipsters page so feel free to use that as a guide. It will be updated regularly so please feel free to check back regularly or sign up to the PFS Newsletter for notifications when new tipsters are reviewed or there are other updates to the Site.
You can download my Tipster Checklist below if you want to keep it for reference
