Premier League Trade Winning £2,744
Exchange trading takes many forms and doesn’t have to involve quick reactions. Here’s an example of a very successful trade . It’s a very successful Premier League Trade on Tottenham without ever expecting them to win the league. The trade was by a close trading colleague of mine, we’ll call him Patrick….
Back in August 2020 Patrick had a look at the early fixtures for the Premier League 20/21 Season. He noticed that Tottenham had most of their early matches against less fancied teams. As a result, his plan was to Back Tottenham to Win the Premier League. Then he’d Lay them when hopefully they had picked up plenty of points from their early games and their price had dropped.
Opening Back Bets
The first step was to Back Tottenham on Betfair. Several bets were placed at average odds of 61.34 with a total stake of £679. If Tottenham won the Premier League Patrick stood to win £41,651!
Then it was time to wait and see how Tottenham performed. Their first match of the season was Home to Everton and they lost 0-1!!! However, their results then picked up and after 5 matches they had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1.
Initial Trade Bets
By 19 October Tottenham’s price on Betfair was around 16.0. Patrick placed several lay bets between 15 and 16.5 with total stakes of £1,250. He was now All Green. If Tottenham won the League then Patrick wins £23K. If they didn’t then he wins £571 (both less Commission)
You can see below Tottenham hit a bit of a purple patch winning their next 4 games
By 8 November, Tottenham’s price on Betfair had dropped to 11. Some more lay bets were placed for stakes of £530 and a liability of £5,316
After a draw with Palace on 13 December Tottenham’s price was 8.6.
The price started drifting after the defeat to Liverpool and then to Leicester.
Closing Trades
Patrick placed further lay bets between during December at prices up to 25.0.
They left a final position shown below. £2744 Profit from the Premier League without expecting to pick the Winner!
Patrick was All Green on Man City, Man Utd, Leicester & Chelsea to the tune of £2,744.16 (with a similar amount on Liverpool)
It’s fair to say in the early part of the season, results for the more fancied teams were very unpredictable. That certainly helped drive Tottenham’s price down. However, there was sound logic behind Patrick’s trade and he was certainly rewarded handsomely.
I love this approach to Trading, looking at the likely early movement in prices based on expected results.
Horse Racing Trading
Similar reasoning can be applied in horse racing to identify horses that are known to be front-runners. There may be value in backing them pre-race before laying in running.
Tennis Trading
In tennis there are players who are known to be fast or slow starters. They might be backed/laid pre match before potentially trading out during the match.
Taking a longer term view in tennis, perhaps you fancy a lower ranked player to do well in a tournament. You might see that their draw is quite favourable. If they keep winning they will be facing similar lower ranked players for the first few matches. They have a good chance of progressing through the rounds and their price will be dropping.
You get the idea – try a little bit of lateral thinking and see what trades you can come up with…… GOOD LUCK
